A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
